The Ensemble Seasonal Climate Prediction for 2004 Summer and Its Verification
2004年夏季短期气候集成预测及检验

The East Asia atmospheric circulation in the summer of 2004 as well as its impact on the climate and anomalous weather in China are analyzed. It indicates that our analysis on the physical factors and their evolution is basically correct. It was predicted that the severe flood was unlikely to occur on a large scale in the summer of 2004, and the main rain belt from June to August was located between the middle to lower reaches of the Yellow River and Huaihe River, it was also predicted the frequency of typhoon which might influence China. The possible problems on the extra-seasonal climate prediction on the summer of 2004 are further discussed, which is to improve the seasonal prediction system by the institute.