The question whether
human activities seriously affect climate is asked with increasing voice these
days. Quite understandable since the climate appears to be out of control with
the significant global temperature increases already seen during the last three
decades and with still heavier temperature increases to come in the future according
to prognoses, among others, in the recent comprehensive IPCC reports [1].
However, the most recent climate data [2], show global temperature development
levelling off or even turning negative since 2001 in contrast to the
anticipated course related to the steady increases in the concentration in the
atmosphere of green-house gasses, primarily carbon dioxide and methane [1]. The
purpose of this communication is to demonstrate that the reduced rate in the
global temperature rise complies with expectations related to the decaying
level of solar activity according to the relation published in an earlier
analysis [3]. Without the reduction in the solar activity-related contributions the
global temperatures would have increased steadily from 1980 to present.
References
[1]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC 2013 Report. http://www.climatechange2013.org
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P. Stauning, “Solar Activity-Climate Relations: A Different Approach,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol. 73, No. 13, 2011, pp. 1999-2012.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp. 2011.06.011
[4]
J. A. Eddy, “The Maunder Minimum,” Science, Vol. 192, No. 4245, 1976, pp. 1189-1202.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.192.4245.1189
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00654090
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Australian IPS Radio and Space Service Predictions, 2013. http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6
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NASA Sunspot Predictions, 2013.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
[12]
NOAA-NGDC Solar Cycle Data, 2010.
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/ maxmin.new
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P. Brohan, J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett and P. D. Jones, “Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Dataset from 1850,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 111, No. D12, 2006.
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C. P. Morice, J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner and P. D. Jones, “Quantifying Uncertainties in Global and Regional Temperature Change using an Ensemble of Observational Estimates: the HadCRUT4 Dataset,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, No. D08, 2012.
http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1029/2011JD017187
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[16]
WMO Report on Greenhouse Gas Concentrations.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_ releases/pr_980_en.html