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测绘学报  2014 

自回归移动平均模型的电离层总电子含量短期预报

, PP. 118-124

Keywords: ARIMA模型,电离层预报,时间序列,预报精度,TEC

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Abstract:

本文在充分考虑乘积性季节模型的情况下,利用差分法对电离层总电子含量(TotalElectronContent,TEC)样本序列进行平稳化处理后,采用时间序列分析中的求和自回归移动平均模型(简称ARIMA,AutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage)对TEC值序列进行预报分析。以欧洲定轨道中心(CODE)提供的2008-2012年电离层TEC值为样本数据,分析了该方法在电离层平静期、活跃期预报高、中、低不同纬度电离层TEC值的精度以及TEC样本数据的长短对预报精度的影响等。实验结果表明在电离层平静期和活跃期预报6天的平均相对精度可达83.3%和86.6%;而平均预报残差分别为0.18±1.9TECU和0.69±2.6TECU,其中预报残差小于3TECU分别达到90%和81%以上;而且两个时期都具有纬度越高相对精度越低而绝对精度越高的规律。此外,预报精度会随TEC样本序列长度增加而提高,但40天左右为其最佳样本长度,如超过此长度,其精度会逐渐降低;而相同样本数据的预报精度会随预报长度的增加而减小,初期并不明显,但超过30天其相对精度将随时间明显降低。

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