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洪水遭遇概率计算方法比较研究
Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Probability Calculation Methods [PDF]
李娜, 郭生练, 熊丰, 王俊
Journal of Water Resources Research (JWRR) , 2020, DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2020.95049

Abstract:

基于Copula函数分别建立金沙江和岷江年最大洪水发生时间和量级的联合分布，推求两江洪水发生时间遭遇的概率，采用联合概率、同现概率和条件概率定量分析两江洪水量级遭遇的风险，并对三种遭遇概率的计算结果进行比较，探讨这三种概率描述洪水遭遇风险的适用性与合理性。结果表明：联合概率的计算结果可能偏大，用来描述洪水遭遇风险并不理想；同现概率和条件概率的计算结果相对合理可靠，符合洪水遭遇的一般规律。
The joint distributions of the annual maximum flood occurrence dates and magnitudes of the Jinsha and Min rivers were established based on Copula functions, and the coincidence probabilities of flood occurrence dates were calculated. The joint probability, co-occurrence probability and conditional probability were used to quantitatively analyze the coincidence risk of flood magnitudes, and the results were compared. The applicability and rationality of the three probabilities to describe flood coincidence risk were discussed. It is shown that the results of joint probability may be too large, while the co-occurrence probability and conditional probability are relatively reasonable and reliable, satisfying the natural law of flood coincidence.

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气候变化及水利工程综合影响下的三峡水库超标准设计洪水
Hyper Standard Design Flood of Three Gorges Reservoir under the Influence of Climate Change and Hydraulic Engineering [PDF]
熊丰, 郭生练, 杨浩, 秦鹏程
Journal of Water Resources Research (JWRR) , 2021, DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2021.105049

Abstract: 采用全球气候模式嵌套变网格模式进行动力降尺度预估三峡水库以上各分区降水量，基于多输入单输出模型计算三峡水库受气候变化和水利工程综合影响下的超标准设计洪水。研究发现：气候变化情景下长江上游降水强度增加，导致三峡水库设计洪水增加，长江上游干支流大型水库群的调蓄对三峡水库设计洪水有削减作用，梯级水库群的调蓄影响要显著高于气候变化影响。三峡水库受气候变化和水利工程综合影响的千年一遇设计洪峰流量和30 d洪量分别为87,323 m³/s和1398.9亿m³，相比设计值分别削减了11.6%和12.0%。
The dynamic downscaling method was adopted to simulate the future precipitation intensity variation of different sub-basins in the upper Yangtze River under climate change scenario. Based on the predicted precipitation, the hyper standard design flood of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) under the influence of climate change and hydraulic engineering was analyzed. Results reveal that the future design flood of TGR will increase under climate change scenario and decrease by the regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs. The impact of upstream reservoir regulation is greater than that of climate change scenario. 1000-year design flood peak and 30 d volumes are 87,323 m³/s and 139.9 billion m³, and decrease by 11.6% and 12% respectively.

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水库对下游断面的防洪作用分析
Impact of Reservoir on Downstream Flood Prevention [PDF]
刘章君, 郭生练, 李天元, 熊立华
Journal of Water Resources Research (JWRR) , 2014, DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2014.36067

Abstract:

流域上游建库蓄水改变了水库下游断面洪水的情势，必须定量地评价水库对下游断面防洪形势的影响。建立了水库对下游断面的防洪作用评价模型，以清江流域为例，分析水布垭水库对隔河岩断面的防洪作用。研究结果表明：水布垭水库和区间均发生千年一遇洪水，隔河岩断面洪峰流量在无水布垭水库时为22,880 m3/s，有水布垭水库时为21,570 m3/s，洪水重现期从1000年减小为550年。水布垭水库和区间均发生二百年一遇洪水，经水布垭水库调蓄后，相当于天然情况下水布垭水库和区间均发生百年一遇洪水。水布垭水库的修建提高了下游隔河岩断面的防洪能力。
The hydrological regime of the natural flow at the downstream site has been changed after the reservoir was built. The quantitative evaluation of reservoir’s flood prevention function for the downstream site is very important and an assessment method is established. The Shuibuya reservoir in the Qingjiang basin was chosen as the case study. The flood prevention function at the Geheyan site with or without reservoir was compared and analyzed. If 1000-year flood both occurred at Shuibuya reservoir and interval basin, the peak discharges at Geheyan site were equal to 22,880 m3/s and 21,570 m3/s without and with Shuibuya reservoir respectively, and the return period was reduced to 550 years. If 200-year flood both occurred at Shuibuya reservoir and interval basin, it was equivalent to 100-year natural flood condition after reservoir storage regulation. This study indicates that the flood protection standard of the Geheyan site is greatly improved when the Shuibuya reservoir has been built.

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变化环境下非一致性水文频率分析研究综述
Review on Nonstationary Hydrological Frequency Analysis under Changing Environments [PDF]
熊立华, 江聪, 杜涛, 郭生练, 许崇育
Journal of Water Resources Research (JWRR) , 2015,

Abstract: 水文频率分析计算是水利工程规划设计、施工以及运行管理的基础工作，传统的水文频率分析计算的一个基本前提是水文序列满足一致性假设。近几十年来，受气候变化和人类活动影响，许多河流的径流序列存在非一致性，导致传统基于一致性假设的水文频率计算方法的适用性受到严峻挑战，因此研究非一致性条件下水文频率分析方法具有重要的意义。本文在总结了国内外最新的非一致水文序列频率分析研究成果的基础上，将该研究方向的研究重点、难点和热点归纳为如下四方面：1) 单变量水文序列的非一致性诊断；2) 单变量水文序列非一致性的数学描述与归因分析；3) 非一致性条件下的单变量随机事件重现期定义和估计；4) 多变量非一致水文序列的频率分析。最后，针对这些问题，对今后的研究进行了展望。
The assumption of stationarity is a basic premise behind conventional hydrological frequency analysis for hydrological design of water resources projects. Under changing environments, hydrological series in many rivers have been found to exhibit nonstationarity. As a result, the methods for conventional hy-drological frequency analysis based on stationarity assumption may be invalid. In recent years, the fre-quency analysis for nonstationary hydrological series has attracted much attention. In this paper, re-searches on nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis are briefly reviewed in terms of four aspects: 1) detection of the nonstationarity in univariate hydrological series; 2) mathematical description and physical attribution of the nonstationarity in univariate hydrological series; 3) definition and calculation of return period of univariate events under nonstationary conditions; and 4) nonstationary frequency analysis for multivariate hydrological series. Finally, some perspectives are presented for further de-velopment and improvement of the nonstationary hydrological frequency analysis.

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MicroRNA与高血压病
段练,熊兴江,王阶
中国中药杂志 , 2014,

Abstract: MicroRNA在高血压病的发生发展中起到重要的作用，包括对肾素血管紧张素醛固酮系统的过激反应，血管内皮的功能紊乱，血管平滑肌的影响，而维持和恢复靶器官中相应miRNA的稳定表达可能成为高血压病治疗的一个新靶点。miRNA的调控过程的阐明和特定miRNA在高血压的靶点的明确将是一项非常有价值，非常激动人心的研究。可能将高血压的治疗方法引领向新的高度。回顾miRNA与高血压病的发病机制，以及miRNA作为生物标志物以及治疗靶点的研究，为今后的研究提供重要借鉴是非常必要的。

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医疗扶贫救助工作综合评价方法研究
熊光练,李谨邑
中国公共卫生 , 2003, DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2003-19-06-54

Abstract: ？目的采用改进的层次分析法,在评价指标权重的确定中用实际数据计算得到评价指标的权重系数,在一定程度上,减少人为主观因素的影响,保证结果的客观性.方法采用层次分析法(analytichierarchyprocess,简称AHP法).结果应用该方法对我国南方4省从1996～2001年开展的医疗扶贫救助工作进行综合评价,得出较符合客观实际的评价结果.结论改进的层次分析法,提高了评价结果的可信程度.

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分布异质视角下产业集聚与文化产业增长研究-基于分位数面板回归的经验证据
The Heterogeneity Effect of Cultural Industry Cluster: Evidence from Panel Quantile Regression Model
熊建练,王耀中
- , 2017,

Abstract: 基于分布异质视角，依据2003-2011年省域面板数据，利用分位数面板回归模型，考量产业集聚与文化产业增长。结果表明：随分位水平的提高，各因素的作用不一。文化产业集聚对文化产业增长的正向边际贡献呈现递增趋势。因此，应遵循文化产业增长的内在规律，因地制宜，合理规划文化产业集聚区，推进文化资源、要素与资本市场的对接，调整文化消费结构，促进文化产业的可持续增长。
After controlling for the individual and distributional heterogeneity, this paper investigates the impact of various factors on the conditional distribution of cultural industry development using the China provincial panel data over the years 2003-2011. The study shows that, with the increase of the level of points, the roles of various factors are different. The marginal effect of cultural industry cluster on cultural industry development is larger at high quantiles than low quantiles. Our empirical results indicate that the policy maker should follow the intrinsic law of cultural industry development.We should formulate different development policy for regions at different development level. Meanwhile, one should promote the docking of cultural resources, elements and capital market, adjust the structure of cultural consumption, and promote the sustainable growth of cultural industries.

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Jason测高卫星和GRACE重力卫星在陆地水资源及洪水监测中的应用
Application of Jason and GRACE Satellites in Terrestrial Water Resources and Flood Monitoring [PDF]
熊景华, 郭生练, 王俊, 尹家波
Journal of Water Resources Research (JWRR) , 2020, DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2020.96062

Abstract:

Jason测高卫星和GRACE重力卫星作为大尺度水文监测手段的有力补充，对变化环境下的全球和区域水资源管理和灾害预警具有重要意义。本文介绍了Jason测高卫星和GRACE重力卫星数据，归纳了国内外学者基于Jason测高卫星和GRACE重力卫星开展的陆地水资源与洪水事件监测研究情况，并分析了Jason测高卫星和GRACE重力卫星目前面临的挑战与未来的展望。
As powerful supplements to large-scale hydrological monitoring techniques, Jason and GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites are of great significance for global and regional water re-sources management and disaster warning under changing environments. This study introduces the Jason altimetry satellite and GRACE data, and summarizes their applications and relevant researches on terrestrial water resources and flood monitoring. Finally, the current challenges and prospects of Jason and GRACE satellites are demonstrated.

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清江梯级水库提前蓄水多目标联合优化调度
Multiobject Early Impound Operation for Cascade Reservoirs in Qing River [PDF]
郭生练, 熊丰, 涂圣勤, 李娜, 张文选, 温岩
Journal of Water Resources Research (JWRR) , 2021, DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2021.102013

Abstract: 清江流域7月20日以后洪量明显减小，可以根据洪水和长江中下游出梅时间的预报结果考虑提前蓄水。建立梯级水库提前蓄水多目标联合优化调度模型，以旬最小生态流量作为蓄水期下泄流量的刚性约束，并采用NSGA-II和PA-DDS优化算法求解。应用结果表明：Pareto前沿分布范围均匀且广泛，可供决策者灵活调度。与原设计方案相比，通过水库群提前蓄水联合优化调度，总蓄满率由82%增加到89%，蓄水期可增发电量4100万kW？h (+2.1%)，增加生态供水1.1亿m³。
Since the flood volume in Qing River basin is decreased evidently after July 20, the reservoir early im-pound operation might be considered based on the forecasts of flood and out-time Meiyu in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. A multiobjective early impound operation model for cascade reservoirs is established with ecologic flow constrains and optimized by the NSGA-II and PA-DDS algorithms. Application results demonstrate that the Pareto front has wide and uniform distribution which provides a flexible selection for decision-makers. Compared with the original impoundment operation rule, the optimal solution can enhance total impoundment efficiency from 82% to 89%, generate 41 million kW？h (or 2.1%) more hydropower annually and increase 0.11 billion m³elological flow during impound period.

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