%0 Journal Article
%T UT1 Prediction Based on Long-Time Series Analysis
%A Victor Tissen
%A Alexander Tolstikov
%A Zinovy Malkin
%J Artificial Satellites
%@ 2083-6104
%D 2010
%I 
%R 10.2478/v10018-010-0012-9
%X A new method is developed for prediction of UT1. The method is based on construction of a general polyharmonic model of the Earth rotation parameters variations using all the data available for the last 80-100 years, and modified autoregression technique. A rigorous comparison of UT1 predictions computed at SNIIM with the prediction computed by IERS (USNO) in 2008-2009 has shown that proposed method provides better accuracy both for ultra-short and long term predictions.
%K Earth rotation
%K Earth orientation parameters
%K Universal time (UT1)
%K UT1 prediction
%K polyharmonic model
%K autoregression
%U http://versita.metapress.com/content/m462802k72175210/?p=81df21a9768e474298d12f43053cd383&pi=8