%0 Journal Article
%T CAN FUTURE STUDIES TRULY PREDICT THE FUTURE? A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TWO APPROACHES OS ESTUDOS DO FUTURO PODEM REALMENTE PREVER O FUTURO? UMA AN¨¢LISE RETROSPECTIVA DE DUAS ABORDAGENS
%A Renata Fernandes Galhanone
%A Geraldo Luciano Toledo
%A Jos¨¦ Afonso Mazzon
%J Future Studies Research Journal : Trends and Strategies
%D 2011
%I Funda??o Instituto de Administra??o
%R 10.7444/future.v3i2.77
%X Futures Studies are one valuable tool to help businesses develop their Strategic Planning, in their ability to point out environment-induced changes in company policies, goals and actions. Companies and their leaders may discover energies and resources when they achieve a holistic, long range worldview, which helps them foresee, plan for and deal with the changes that will affect their future. The aim of this article is to examine the currentness of two exemplars of Futures Studies with distinct methods: a quantitative study analyzed by Mario Henrique Simonsen, and a qualitative futurology essay by Alvin Toffler based on the analysis of social, economic, technological and political trends and phenomena. A bibliographical research on secondary macroeconomic and sociocultural data supplied evidences for the projected trends. Based on this, the limitations of projection-based methods are discussed, as well as the advantages of using a qualitative or mixed approach when forecasts are made for the long term. It is worth reinforcing that the purpose of Futures Studies is not to predict with absolute precision how tomorrow will be like, but to produce indications so that adequate strategic decisions can be made today in an uncertain and turbulent environment. No campo da Administra  o de Empresas, os Estudos do Futuro figuram como instrumento valioso para auxiliar a desenvolver o Planejamento Estrat¨¦gico, ao apontar as mudan as induzidas pelo meio ambiente nas pol¨ªticas, metas e a  es das empresas. As empresas e suas lideran as podem descobrir recursos e energias quando adquirem uma vis o de mundo hol¨ªstica e de longo prazo, o que lhes permite prognosticar, planejar e lidar com as mudan as que afetar o o futuro. Neste trabalho objetiva-se examinar a atualidade de dois exemplares de Estudos do Futuro, comparando as tend¨ºncias previstas e suas evid¨ºncias atuais. Na an¨¢lise foram focalizados dois estudos com abordagens metodol¨®gicas distintas: um estudo quantitativo, analisado por Mario Henrique Simonsen, e outro, qualitativo, de Alvin Toffler, apoiado na an¨¢lise de tend¨ºncias e fen menos sociais, econ micos, tecnol¨®gicos e pol¨ªticos. Evid¨ºncias relativas ¨¤s tend¨ºncias projetadas foram levantadas por meio de pesquisa bibliogr¨¢fica de dados secund¨¢rios macroecon micos e socioculturais. Com base nessa an¨¢lise, discutem-se as limita  es dos m¨¦todos baseados em proje  es e as vantagens de utilizar abordagens qualitativas ou mistas quando o horizonte de previs o envolve o longo prazo. Vale sinalizar que o prop¨®sito dos Estudos do Futuro n o ¨¦ vaticinar com absoluta pr
%U http://www.revistafuture.org/index.php/FSRJ/article/view/77