%0 Journal Article
%T ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS
%A Marco Antonio Conejero
%A Marcos Fava Neves
%A Mairun Junqueira Alves Pinto
%J Future Studies Research Journal : Trends and Strategies
%D 2010
%I Funda??o Instituto de Administra??o
%R 10.7444/future.v2i1.23
%X Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker¡äs (1995) and Schwartz¡äs (1991) earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i) identify the focal issue; ii) summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii) identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv) validate driving forces with specialists; v) rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi) design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries¡¯ decision makers when planning production systems. Os cen¨¢rios para as metas de adi  o obrigat¨®ria de biocombust¨ªveis s o uma parte importante do planejamento estrat¨¦gico das cadeias produtivas de alimentos e bioenergia, sendo o seu desenho o objetivo desse artigo. Cada cen¨¢rio conta uma hist¨®ria de como os v¨¢rios elementos poderiam interagir sob certas condi  es. O m¨¦todo usado aqui tem como base as contribui  es anteriores de Schoemaker (1995) e Schwartz (1991). Uma seq¨¹¨ºncia de seis passos ¨¦ seguida: i) identificar o foco de an¨¢lise; ii) revisar as metas atuais de adi  o obrigat¨®ria; iii) identificar os direcionadores com base em uma analise macro-ambiental; iv) validar os direcionadores com especialistas; v) priorizar tais for as motrizes em termos de importancia perante incertezas, construindo-se uma matriz de correla  o; vi) desenhar os cen¨¢rios. Ao final, s o propostos tr¨ºs cen¨¢rios alternativos relacionados ¨¤ ado  o, por parte de pa¨ªses, at¨¦ 2020, de metas de adi  o obrigat¨®ria de biocombust¨ªveis, que poder o orientar os tomadores de decis o dos mesmos durante o planejamento de sistemas de produ  o.
%U http://www.revistafuture.org/index.php/FSRJ/article/view/23