%0 Journal Article
%T SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING O PLANEJAMENTO DE CEN¨¢RIOS COMO APRENDIZADO
%A Antonio Louren£¿o Junior
%A Luiz Claudio Vieira de Oliveira
%A Z¨¦lia Miranda Kilimnik
%J Future Studies Research Journal : Trends and Strategies
%D 2010
%I Funda??o Instituto de Administra??o
%R 10.7444/future.v2i1.20
%X Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005). The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization¡¯s decision making process ¨C mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model ¨C herein referred to as Planning as Learning ¨C via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell¡¯s model) were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work. O planejamento de cen¨¢rios tem sido cada vez mais utilizado como instrumento para testar e melhorar o desempenho das organiza  es em ambientes dinamicos. Neste artigo, objetiva-se demonstrar o potencial de um modelo experimental de Planejamento de Cen¨¢rios para mobilizar, motivar e agregar maior conte¨²do ¨¤ tomada de decis o organizacional, principalmente no que se refere ao Planejamento Estrat¨¦gico de duas institui  es do setor p¨²blico, uma ind¨²stria farmac¨ºutica e uma funda  o de ensino tecnol¨®gico. Descreve-se as etapas de aplica  o de um modelo h¨ªbrido de planejamento de cen¨¢rios - aqui denominado Planejamento pelo Aprendizado - por meio da pesquisa-a  o; apresenta-se os cen¨¢rios resultantes do experimento; e delineia-se os principais resultados de uma avalia  o realizada sobre esta pr¨¢tica. Para tanto, analisou-se dois modelos j¨¢ consagrados de Planejamento de Cen¨¢rios - a escola Prospectiva e o modelo da Shell - que serviram como referencial para a proposi  o e aplica  o de um modelo experimental nos dois objetos de estudo. O processo de avalia  o do impacto da t¨¦cnica foi realizado por um question¨¢rio que obteve altos ¨ªndi
%U http://www.revistafuture.org/index.php/FSRJ/article/view/20