%0 Journal Article
%T FORECAST OF PRODUCTION OF FLEX FUEL CARS AND ETHANOL DEMAND IN BRAZIL IN 2014 PREVIS O DE FABRICA  O DE CARROS BICOMBUST¨ªVEIS E DE DEMANDA DE ETANOL NO BRASIL EM 2014
%A Felipe Teixeira Favaro
%A Cristina Tosta Santos
%A Virginia Parente
%J Future Studies Research Journal : Trends and Strategies
%D 2010
%I Funda??o Instituto de Administra??o
%R 10.7444/future.v2i1.44
%X Brazil is currently set up as an important worldwide example in relation to the successful incorporation of biofuel ethanol in its energy matrix. The article examines the impacts of biofuel technology insertion (flex fuel) and estimated, using the methodology Fisher-Pry, the evolution of the total vehicle fleet with this technology in Brazil in 2014. In addition, we performed a prediction of future demand for ethanol, using the technique of Gompertz, also for the year 2014. Both methodologies were checked through STATA statistical system. The study relied on data from January 2005 to October 2009, which were extrapolated to December 2014. The Fisher-Pry model was used to prepare the scenario analysis of the replacement of cars with conventional technology (gasoline), for cars with flex fuel technology. As a result, the projection showed an increase of 18.2 percentage points in five years, rising from 78.4% recorded in October 2009, to 96.6% in December 2014. As a premise, we considered the continuity of the prices of ethanol and gasoline observed between jan/02 Oct/2009 and that shows ethanol being marketed at a price below the minimum necessary to make this renewable fuel competitive with gasoline in 88 of 95 months. The Gompertz model indicated that ethanol will represent approximately 43.9% of all fuel sold by distributors at the end of 2014, whereas today this share is only 18.2%. O Brasil se configura como um importante exemplo mundial no que se refere ¨¤ incorpora  o bem sucedida do biocombust¨ªvel etanol em sua matriz energ¨¦tica. Neste artigo, objetiva-se estimar a demanda por etanol e a evolu  o da participa  o total dos ve¨ªculos com esta tecnologia na frota brasileira at¨¦ 2014. Para tanto empregou-se o m¨¦todo de Gompertz e o m¨¦todo Fisher-Pry, ambos verificados atrav¨¦s do sistema estat¨ªstico STATA. Extrapolou-se dados de janeiro de 2005 a outubro de 2009 at¨¦ dezembro de 2014. O modelo Fisher-Pry foi utilizado para elaborar o cen¨¢rio de an¨¢lise da substitui  o da tecnologia convencional movida exclusivamente ¨¤ gasolina por carros com tecnologia flex fuel ou bicombust¨ªvel. Esta proje  o apontou para um aumento de 18,2 pontos percentuais em cinco anos, passando dos 78,4% registrados em outubro de 2009 para 96,6% em dezembro de 2014. Como premissa, foi considerada a continuidade nos pre os do etanol e da gasolina apresentados entre jan/02 e out/2009, que mostra o etanol sendo comercializado a um pre o inferior ao m¨ªnimo necess¨¢rio para tornar este combust¨ªvel renov¨¢vel competitivo com a gasolina em 88 dos 95 meses. O modelo de Gompertz indicou que o
%U http://www.revistafuture.org/index.php/FSRJ/article/view/44