%0 Journal Article
%T Reply to "Comment on 'Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Status of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation by Jordan et al. [2011]' by Stuart Crampin"
%A Thomas H. Jordan
%A Yun-Tai Chen
%A Paolo Gasparini
%A Raul Madariaga
%J Annals of Geophysics
%D 2012
%I Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
%R 10.4401/ag-5690
%X In his commentary on the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) report [Jordan et al. 2011], Crampin [2012] claims that observable changes in shear-wave splitting can predict large earthquakes on short time scales with high reliability and skill, and he challenges a central ICEF finding¡ªthat no method has yet demonstrated such a predictive capability. In particular, Crampin asserts that "observations of seismic shear-wave splitting monitored at a three-borehole Stress-Monitoring Site (SMS) in central Italy could monitor stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation (crack-coalescence) before all damaging (M ¡Ý 5) earthquakes within 1000 km of the SMS [¡­] This means that installation of one expensive SMS (preferably two throughout the length of Italy) would stress-forecast the time, magnitude, and in some circumstances fault-break of all potentially damaging on the mainland of Italy". Crampin's assertions are based on prediction methods he has advocated for several decades [e.g., Crampin et al. 1984; Crampin et al. 1990]. As part of the ICEF study, we reviewed the literature on these methods. Nothing contained in the present commentary compels us to alter our previous findings. [...]
%U http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5690