%0 Journal Article
%T Entropy for Business Failure Prediction: An Improved Prediction Model for the Construction Industry
%A Jay Bal
%A Yen Cheung
%A Hsu-Che Wu
%J Advances in Decision Sciences
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/459751
%X This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of entropy measures derived from information theory combined with discriminant analysis in the prediction of construction business failure. Such failure in modern complex supply chains is an extremely disruptive force, and its likelihood is a key factor in the prequalification appraisal of contractors. The work described, using financial data from the Taiwanese construction industry, extends the classical methods by applying Shannon's information theory to improve their prediction ability and provides an alternative to newer artificial-intelligence-based approaches. 1. Introduction Over the last 35 years, business failure prediction has become a major research domain especially with increased global business competition [1]. Business failure is an extremely disruptive force in the construction industry [2]. Kangari et al. [3] indicated that the construction industry in the USA has several unique characteristics that sharply distinguish it from other sectors of the economy. The bankruptcy rate within the American construction industry has been increasing in recent years and the USA has the highest percentage of construction company failures each year [4, 5]. The construction industry is also a major industry in the UK and has the highest percentage of company failures each year [6, 7]. Similarly, in Asian countries like Taiwan where there has been phenomenal growth in the last few decades, the construction sector also plays a major economic role. Beaver [8] was one of the first researchers to study business failure prediction. He analysed financial ratios one by one to evaluate their predictive ability. He then developed their predictive abilities using cutoff scores to classify each company as either failed or nonfailed company. However, this classification technique uses one ratio at a time and conflicts arise when one ratio classifies the company as healthy whilst another detects distress. His work was followed by Altman¡¯s [9] model based on discriminant analysis and Ohlson¡¯s work [10] based on the use of logistic regression. Like many other problems in science and engineering, popular machine learning techniques from the 1990s such as neural networks and genetic algorithms have also been applied to business problems such as bankruptcy or business distress detection [11, 12] with some successes. When qualitative data and uncertainties abound, these techniques are very useful indeed. However, techniques such as artificial neural networks require large datasets for training purposes and large models are
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ads/2013/459751/