%0 Journal Article
%T A Comparison of Two Land Use Simulation Models under the RCP4.5 Scenario in China
%A Feng Wu
%A Jinyan Zhan
%A Qian Xu
%A Yihui Xiong
%A Zhongxiao Sun
%J Advances in Meteorology
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/578350
%X The land use simulation model is an important tool to analyze the land use/land cover change (LUCC), which plays a key role in influencing the global warming. However, there have been very few global LUCC simulation models, especially the models that can be used to analyze the interaction among the socioeconomic development, climate change, and LUCC. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the GTAP-AEZ model are two models that take account of the influence of social economy and climate change at the global scale, but they may have some parameter errors due to the rough parameter setting. This study aims to compare the simulation results obtained with the GCAM model and GTAP-AEZ model and optimize their parameters according to the specific conditions of China. First, we simulated the land use structure in China in 2010 with the two models and compared the simulation results with the real one. Second, we calibrated these parameters of models according to the China¡¯s national conditions and implemented the simulation again. The result indicates that the calibrated GCAM can provide more accurate simulation result of land use, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning and policy formulation to mitigate the climate change in China. 1. Introduction Humans have transformed significant portions of the Earth¡¯s land surface, 10 to 15 percent of which is currently dominated by agricultural crop or urban-industrial areas, and 6 to 8 percent is pasture [1]. These land use changes have important implications for future climate changes and, consequently, great implications for subsequent land use changes [2¨C4]. Climate change and land use change are both global drivers of environmental change, and the impact assessments generally show that interactions between them can lead to serious challenges to the provision of ecosystem services. Besides, in many cases it is impossible to determine the impacts of climate change without consideration of land use/land cover change (LUCC). LUCC is a widespread, accelerating, and significant process, and it has been one of the research cores of the international programmes such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Global Environmental Change Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) and is also one of the global environmental research focuses and cutting-edge issues [5]. LUCC is driven by human activities, and in many cases it also leads to changes that impact the humans; therefore, LUCC modeling is a critical way for formulating effective environmental policies and
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/578350/