%0 Journal Article
%T Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China
%A Qian Xu
%A Qunou Jiang
%A Kai Cao
%A Xing Li
%A Xiangzheng Deng
%J Advances in Meteorology
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/919013
%X Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC) is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model). We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change. 1. Introduction LUCC is a significant performance of the material and energy interactions between human and global environment [1¨C3]. It not only affects the geographical distribution of terrestrial ecosystem patterns and productivity but also objectively reflects how human influence biogeochemical cycles and the structure and function of ecosystem [4¨C7]. Land use refers to all the activities to develop and utilize the land use on purpose; for example, agricultural land, industrial land, traffic land, residential land, and so forth, are all the land use types. Advanced methods have also been used by scholars in the classification of land use; Jiang et al. used the ANN and Dempster-Shafer theory to get a more detailed classification of land use [8]. LUCC is one of the International core research program of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Global Environmental Change Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), which also is one of the new research field and global environmental research focus in earth system science [9]. A lot of scholars had come to realize the important research significance of LUCC, and some studies showed that there was a very close relationship between land use changes and climate change. Dale pointed out that land use change was related to climate change as both a causal factor and a major way in early 1994 [10]. Studies of Hao and Ren showed that LUCC had a profound influence in climates,
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/919013/