%0 Journal Article
%T HerdsmenĄ¯s Adaptation to Climate Changes and Subsequent Impacts in the Ecologically Fragile Zone, China
%A Yingcheng Liu
%A Tao Zhang
%A Xiaoli Geng
%A Liansheng He
%A Zhiguo Pang
%J Advances in Meteorology
%D 2013
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2013/748715
%X The change of land surface can exert significant influence on the future climate change. This study analyzed the effects of herdsmenĄ¯s adaptation to climate changes on the livestock breeding, income, and land surface dynamics with a land surface parameterization scheme. The empirical analysis was first carried out on the impacts of the adaptation measures of herdsmen on their income in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming (PMP) model on the basis of the household survey data in the Three-River Source Region, an ecologically fragile area in Qinghai Province, China. Then, the land surface parameterization process is analyzed based on the agent-based model (ABM), which involves the herdsmenĄ¯s adaptation measures on climate change, and it also provides reference for the land surface change projection. The result shows that the climate change adaptation measures will have a positive effect on the increasing of the amount of herdsmanĄ¯s livestock and income as well as future land surface dynamics. Some suggestions on the land use management were finally proposed, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning. 1. Introduction The climate change poses great threats to the human society and natural environment [1]. In order to adapt to the climate change, social agents would take some adaptation measures that have some synergistic effects on the dynamics of land surface. However, land surface dynamics would also react on the regional climate condition. Anthropogenic adaptation measures on climate change and variability may directly or indirectly influence the dynamic land surface change [2], which will have feedback effects on climatic conditions [3¨C6]. One of the effects of climate change on land surface dynamics reflects on the land surface dynamics response to climate change in the Alpine region. Some human decisions can somehow mitigate the climate change by influencing CO2 concentration according to previous studies that were conducted with the empirical or numerical methods [3, 4, 6¨C9], while some adaptation measures will indirectly change the climatic conditions through the intermediate impacts mainly derived from the change of land surface properties [6, 10¨C12]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report has updated a framework of interrelationship between human adaptationĄ¯ design and implementation and climate change [13, 14]. However, previous studies have rarely analyzed the potential impacts of humanĄ¯s adaptation measures on land surface change
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2013/748715/