%0 Journal Article
%T Motorist's Response to an Increase in Traffic Fines
%A Debora E. G. Moolenaar
%J Journal of Criminology
%D 2014
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2014/827194
%X Minor offences are often punished with a fine. Up to 2007 the number of fines in the Netherlands was increasing but 2008 saw a decline. At the same time fines were raised significantly. The question is whether the raise in fines caused the decline in the number of fines. To answer this question a database containing administrative fines for speeding on the motorway over the period 2007¨C2010 is analyzed. Two categories are compared: speeding offences detected by average speed measuring systems (ASMS) and speeding offences detected by police officers. For each category the elasticity of fines is estimated. It turns out that the elasticity of fines detected by an ASMS is small but differs significantly from both 0 and £¿1. If fines are raised by 1%, the offence rate, that is, proportion of fines detected by an ASMS, will decline by 0.14%. For fines handed out by police officers we see no such effect: the estimated elasticity of the number of fines is positive and does not significantly differ from zero. The conclusion is that motorists make moderate adjustments in their behavior when fines are raised but only if the risk of being caught is high. 1. Introduction Becker [1] argues that when the risk of apprehension (and punishment) is fixed and assumed 100%, the optimal fine only depends on the marginal harm to society and the cost of enforcement. Social harm associated with speeding offences depends on the number of accidents which may result. It follows that by raising the fines the number of offences can be reduced and thus the harm. The size of this effect is measured by the so-called elasticity of fines. On the other hand, if fines are fixed and the risk of apprehension is subject to control, then the optimal fine depends on the marginal net damage to society, the cost of enforcement, and the risk of apprehension. It follows that by raising the risk of apprehension the number of offences can be reduced. If both the risk of apprehension and the fines are subject to control, then the optimal fine and apprehension rate depend on the offender¡¯s attitude towards risk. Recent developments in the Netherlands with respect to fines provide a unique opportunity to test Becker¡¯s theory. After a long period of no change the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice has raised the fines several times in the past five years. These raises were partly meant to counteract the effects of inflation and partly to induce a reduction in the number of offences. In addition technological developments meant that the risk of getting caught for speeding offences has increased
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jcrim/2014/827194/