%0 Journal Article
%T 河南省工业能源消费及大气污染物排放预测研究<br>Forecasts of Industrial Energy Consumption and Air Pollutant Emissions in Henan Province
%A 田璐璐
%A 王克
%A 刘磊
%A 张瑞芹
%J Clean Coal and Energy
%P 1-7
%@ 2334-3516
%D 2013
%I Hans Publishing
%R 10.12677/cce.2013.11001
%X <div style=\"text-align:justify;\">
	<span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">本文首先对“十二五”期间河南省的工业能源消费情况进行分析，进而估算其</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">SO</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">2</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">，</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">NO</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">x</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">，</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">PM</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">10</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">，</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">PM</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">2.5</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">等大气污染物的直接排放量，并在此基础上，采用</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">LEAP</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">模型和情景分析法对“十二五”期间河南省工业能源消费量与大气污染物的排放量进行了预测，</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">使用</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">LMDI</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">分解方法对预测结果进行分析。研究表明，“十二五”期间河南省的能源消费量仍保持增长，而大气污染物排放量均有所下降；影响排放变化的主要因素是活动水平的增长，能源强度和排放因子的下降。&lt;br/&gt;</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">In this paper, industrial energy consumption of Henan in 12</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">th</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\"> Five Years Plan was analyzed firstly and then the direct emissions of air pollutions caused by industrial energy consumption which included SO</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">2</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">, </span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">NO</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">x</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">, PM</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">10</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">, PM</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">2.5</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\"> were calculated. And on this basis, the industrial energy consumption and air pollution emis- </span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">sions of Henan in 12</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">th</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\"> Five Years Plan were forecasted by LEAP model and scenario analysis method, at last, the results were analyzed by using LMDI method. The study shows that Henan’s energy consumption keeps </span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">growing and air pollutant emission decreases during 12</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\">th</span><span style=\"line-height:1.5;\"> Five Years Plan, main driving factors resulting in emis- sions’ change are the increase of the activity level and the decrease of the energy intensity and emission factors.</span>
</div>
%K 能源消费；污染物排放；LEAP模型；LMDI<br>Energy Consumption
%K Pollutant Emissions
%K LEAP Model
%K LMDI
%U http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=12311