%0 Journal Article
%T Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models
%A Behnam Sharif
%A Jacek A. Kopec
%A Hubert Wong
%A Philippe Fin¨¨s
%A Eric C. Sayre
%A Ran R. Liu
%A Michael C. Wolfson
%J Epidemiology Research International
%D 2012
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2012/610405
%X Objective. Uncertainty analysis (UA) is an important part of simulation model validation. However, literature is imprecise as to how UA should be performed in the context of population-based microsimulation (PMS) models. In this expository paper, we discuss a practical approach to UA for such models. Methods. By adapting common concepts from published UA guidelines, we developed a comprehensive, step-by-step approach to UA in PMS models, including sample size calculation to reduce the computational time. As an illustration, we performed UA for POHEM-OA, a microsimulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada. Results. The resulting sample size of the simulated population was 500,000 and the number of Monte Carlo (MC) runs was 785 for 12-hour computational time. The estimated 95% uncertainty intervals for the prevalence of OA in Canada in 2021 were 0.09 to 0.18 for men and 0.15 to 0.23 for women. The uncertainty surrounding the sex-specific prevalence of OA increased over time. Conclusion. The proposed approach to UA considers the challenges specific to PMS models, such as selection of parameters and calculation of MC runs and population size to reduce computational burden. Our example of UA shows that the proposed approach is feasible. Estimation of uncertainty intervals should become a standard practice in the reporting of results from PMS models. 1. Introduction Computer simulation models are widely used in public health research [1, 2]. Population-based microsimulation (PMS) models are increasingly used to model possible effects of public health interventions at the population level [3¨C5]. Such models usually represent the population of a country: incorporate multiple cohorts, and model births, deaths, and migration [6¨C8]. Population-based models differ from models commonly used in cohort-based cost-effectiveness studies that model a single cohort of patients [9]. Unlike macrolevel simulation models (e.g., cell-based [10] or compartmental models [11]), microsimulation (MS) models generate a life history for every individual in a population [12, 13] and provide population-level outcomes by aggregating the individualsĄŻ event histories [14, 15]. In PMS models of chronic, noncommunicable diseases, individuals can be treated as independent units (no interindividual interactions). Examples include models of breast cancer [7, 16], stroke [6, 17], pulmonary disease [18], colon cancer [19], diabetes [20, 21], and other chronic conditions [5, 15]. MS models that incorporate interactions between individuals, often referred to as agent-based models, have been
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/eri/2012/610405/