%0 Journal Article
%T Regional Fertility Transition in India: An Analysis Using Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios
%A Thomas Spoorenberg
%A Premchand Dommaraju
%J International Journal of Population Research
%D 2012
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2012/358409
%X This paper examines various aspects of regional fertility transition in India. Using nationally representative data from three rounds of National Family Health Surveys (NFHSs) conducted in India, we compare and contrast fertility patterns in six regions of India for the period between 1977 and 2004. To study the fertility patterns, we use synthetic parity progression ratios which, besides providing estimates for average lifetime parity, also allow for decomposition of lifetime parity by birth order. The paper also examines changes in birth intervals over time and across the six regions. The results confirm the persistence of regional differences in fertility. However, in all regions fertility is declining and it is possible that fertility rates will converge in the near future. The main reason for fertility decline in all regions is the reduction in third- and higher-order births. There has not been any significant decline in first and second births, even in regions with low fertility. In addition to the discussion of the substantive results, the paper also comments on the quality of NFHS data. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. Its contents have not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations 1. Introduction The broad spatial contours of Indian fertility patterns are well known, but the specifics about the spatial heterogeneity in fertility decline remain unclear. Often, the near or below replacement fertility in much of south India is contrasted with high fertility in parts of north India. However, fertility heterogeneity is not restricted to the north-south dichotomy alone. There are differences within and between other regions in India, though they are not as pronounced as the north-south divide. Despite the differences in the current level, fertility has been declining at a varying pace in almost all parts of the country. In this descriptive paper, we examine in detail the characteristics of the fertility decline in various regions of the country by examining parity progression ratios and mean birth intervals for a 25-year period between 1977 and 2004. Parity progression ratios (PPRs) are important tools in understanding fertility transitions for several reasons. First, they capture the contingent nature of fertility behavior: the decision to have a child is often shaped by the number of previous births a woman has had. Second, they can be used to gauge whether certain family sizes, in terms of number of children, are becoming common. Third, the
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijpr/2012/358409/