%0 Journal Article
%T Internal Migration and Fertility in Turkey: Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis
%A Mehmet Ali Eryurt
%A £¿smet KO£¿
%J International Journal of Population Research
%D 2012
%I Hindawi Publishing Corporation
%R 10.1155/2012/329050
%X Starting from the mid-twentieth century, Turkey has experienced a remarkable fertility decline. Total period fertility declined from the level of 6 or 7 to the almost replacement level by 2003. Similarly, in the 1950s onwards internal migration gathered speed and transformed Turkey from a predominantly rural country to a mainly urban one in less than half a century. Fertility and migration were mutually reinforcing processes in Turkey. Considering this relationship, the study aims to compare fertility behaviours of migrants with those of nonmigrants at both origin and destination areas. The data source is the 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey. A nonparametric descriptive survival analysis technique, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, was employed. Kaplan-Meier survival curves of transition to first, second and subsequent births were compared by migration status. Survival curves of second and subsequent births for rural-to-urban and urban-to-rural migrant women are similar to the curves at the place of destination rather than place of origin. This result reveals that adaptation theory, rather than socialization theory, is more explanatory in the case of Turkey. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates showed that rural native and rural-to-rural migrant women experience all the events related with family formation earlier in their life cycle. 1. Introduction Turkey underwent substantial social and economic changes in the last century, especially from 1950 onwards. Starting in the 1950s, internal migration and urbanization gathered speed and became one of the most important factors changing social and economic structure of Turkey. The results of 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey [1] reveal that urban population exceeded 71 percent of the total population, transforming Turkey from a predominantly rural country to a mainly urban one in less than half a century. Similarly, Turkey experienced a serious fertility decline starting in the 1950s. Until the 1970s, the decline was gradual, but since that time the country experienced a steeper decline. During this process of change, the level of total period fertility declined from a level of 6 or 7 to a value near to replacement level by the 2000s. Moreover, the 2003 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey [1] shows that in three of the five demographic regions, namely in the West, the Central, and the North Anatolia regions, the total fertility rate is below the replacement level. Changes in fertility and migration occurred simultaneously as mutually reinforcing processes in Turkey. There are relatively few
%U http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijpr/2012/329050/