%0 Journal Article
%T A truth commission did not tell the truth: A rejoinder to Manrique
%A Silvio Rendon
%J Research & Politics
%@ 2053-1680
%D 2019
%R 10.1177/2053168019840972
%X Rendon (2019) showed that the indirect estimation of total killings in the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission introduced a distortion. Two of the original analysts, Manrique-Vallier and Ball (2019), provide an indirect defense of their work using new data, and argue that this supports their unprecedented indirect method over the direct estimator. In this rejoinder I show that their new figure of 17,687 killings by the Shining Path is closer to the direct estimate of 18,341 than to their indirect estimate of 31,331 killings. I also show that the indirect method systematically produces impossible negative predicted killings and overfits massively. I reiterate my conclusion that their indirect estimates are unreliable and should be retracted
%K Armed conflict
%K capture-recapture
%K count data
%K human rights data
%K multiple imputation
%U https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2053168019840972