%0 Journal Article
%T Modelling COVID-19 Cumulative Number of Cases in Kenya Using a Negative Binomial INAR (1) Model
%A Charity Wamwea
%A Susan Mwelu
%A Matabel Odin
%J Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation
%P 14-36
%@ 2327-4026
%D 2023
%I Scientific Research Publishing
%R 10.4236/ojmsi.2023.111002
%X <span style=\"font-family:&quot;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">In this paper, a Negative Binomial (NB) Integer-valued Autoregressive
model of order 1, INAR (1), is used to model and forecast the cumulative number
of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases in Kenya independently for the three waves
starting from 14</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">th</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> March 2020 to 1</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">st</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> February 2021. The
first wave was experienced from 14</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">th</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> March 2020 to 15</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">th</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> September 2020, the second wave from around 15</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">th</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> September 2020 to 1</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">st</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> February 2021 and the third wave was experienced from 1</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">st</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> February
2021 to 3</span><sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">rd</span></sup><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"> June 2021. 5, 10, and 15</span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">-</span></span><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\"><span style=\"font-family:Verdana;\">day-ahead forecasts are obtained for these three
waves and the performance of the NB-INAR (1) model analysed.
%K COVID-19 Predictive Model
%K New SARS-CoV-2
%K Integer Valued Autoregressive (INAR) Model
%U http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=122675