Efecto de las importaciones de carne de porcino en el mercado mexicano, 1961-2007

the trade balance of the mexican pork industry has been unfavorable since 1988, as imports increased 515.7 % between 1988 and 2007. the objective was to represent pork market performance, taking into account import prices of both pork and feed grains and to quantify their effects on foreign trade balance. to this end an econometric model of simultaneous equations was developed which was quantified through the least squares method in two stages for 1961 to 2007. results show that import price elasticity of foreign trade balance was inelastic, which resulted in a 0.66 % import decrease (846.7 t), although in some years below normal value imports affected both producer and consumer domestic prices, fostering consumption and discouraging production. demand had greater impact on pork import increase and cancelled any positive effects due to supply factors.