Desarrollo local en Isla Grande: un modelo probabilístico para la pobreza

the purpose of this article is to evaluate the actual status of local development in orika, main human settlement in isla grande, which is the biggest of 27 islands located in rosario islands archipelago in cartagena, colombia. using the rationality of the local development concept with a probabilistic model that determines poverty？s probability and information from the 2007 population census and the 2009 household survey implemented by surtigas foundation, the theoretical assumption is confirmed, in where exclusion and vulnerability of the afro descendant population concerning labor market and income generation are associated to important increases in poverty probability occurrence.