Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Curve Fitting Prediction Optimized by Genetic Algorithms

This paper presents a new approach for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Curve fitting prediction and time series models are used for hourly loads forecasting of the week days. The curve fitting prediction (CFP) technique combined with genetic algorithms (GAs) is used for obtaining the optimum parameters of Gaussian model to obtain a minimum error between actual and forecasted load. A new technique for selecting the training vectors is introduced. The proposed model is simple, fast, and accurate. It is shown that the proposed approach provide very accurate hourly load forecast. Also it is shown that the proposed method can provide more accurate results than the conventional techniques. The mean percent relative error of the model is less than 1 %.