Developing A Deterioration Probabilistic Model for Rail Wear

The vital part in any overall maintenance system is the “predicting future condition” sector. This sector receives all the data which are “gathered by inspection systems and saved in data base” and predicts the future condition by analysing this information. In this paper, first, the rail condition was categorized according to the definition of rail wear defect index; thereafter, the future rail condition was predicted on the basis of wear. In fact, knowing two “time and annual passing loads” variables, the future rail condition is predictable. In addition, the rail life, from the wear view, can be estimated using Deterioration Model. Actually, in this research, rail wear in curved track with 250 meters radius was measured by a field scan on a six-month period and rail life was predicted using deterioration probabilistic model.