PROJECT RELIABILITY: PROBABILITY OF A PROJECT MEETS ITS QUALITY-COST-TIME TARGET UNDER UNCERTAINTY

For so long, Quality, Cost, and Time become an Iron Triangle for measuring project success. Many researchers have investigated about Quality-Cost-Time in a Project Network under uncertainty, particularly it focuses on single parameter (Quality/Cost/Time only) or combination between parameters (trade off or relation between parameters). Knowing the probability to meet these three targets is important, especially during the project planning. Management can gain information insights about the confidence level to meet the target and potential risk in the future. However, none of the previous research has combined these three parameters under uncertainty. If we define quality as: 1) a standard or requirement to be met with failed and successful probability; 2) it has consequences or impact on additional cost and/or additional time for nonconformity; and 3) the time and cost have their own relationship and form of uncertainty, here our proposed method to evaluate probability of a project whether it met its Quality-Cost-Time target under uncertainty. We call this as Project Reliability. A Monte Carlo Simulation and Generalized Activity Network are utilized. A numerical example is provided to support and validating the propose method.