Morphological analysis of the introduction of electric vehicles in S o Paulo’s urban traffic Análise morfológica da introdu o de veículos elétricos no tráfego urbano de S o Paulo

Pressures of international organizations and governmental regulations have increased substantially when it comes to the reduction of dependence on fossil fuels and transport pollutants emissions. To meet these challenges, the automotive industry invests large sums in research and development on a broad portfolio of new technologies related to vehicular propulsion. Considering the alternatives under development, electric vehicles, specifically, have received increased attention both in Brazil and abroad. This study aims to contribute with the construction of future scenarios in 2020 concerning the introduction of electric vehicles in S o Paulo′s urban traffic, an integral part of the CNPq/FINEP research project which is being undertaken at the University of S o Paulo (USP/FEA), coordinated by Prof. James T. C. Wright. The Morphological Analysis method was adopted given the fact that it facilitates the structuring of the managerial and technological complexities of the proposed problem, with views to identifying the variables and their critical relations for the prospection of scenarios. The variables that influence an urban transport system were structured into four logical groups: scope of usage, structural architecture and propulsion system of the vehicle, road and energy supply/recharge infrastructure and finally, business models. These groups, in turn, were analysed at distinct levels, leading to other variables. Subsequently, alternative forms, which the selected variables could take on, were generated. The multidimensional matrix resulting from this set of combinatorial possibilities was then carefully verified in terms of feasibility and consistency in order to identify the basic settings of greatest interest to the scenarios prospecting effort. Key words: Prospective scenarios. Morphological analysis. Electric vehicles. Substancialmente tem aumentado as press es de organismos internacionais e regulamenta es governamentais no sentido de redu o da dependência de combustíveis fósseis e de emiss es poluentes provenientes dos transportes. Para responder a esses desafios, a indústria automobilística investe vultosos recursos em pesquisa e desenvolvimento em um vasto portfólio de novas tecnologias relacionadas à propuls o veicular. Das alternativas em desenvolvimento, os veículos elétricos, especificamente, têm recebido crescentemente aten o, tanto no Brasil quanto no exterior. O presente estudo pretende contribuir para a constru o de cenários futuros em 2020 relacionados à introdu o de veículos elétricos no tráfego urbano de S o Paulo, parte integr