A mathematical model of the unfolded protein stress response reveals the decision mechanism for recovery, adaptation and apoptosis

Here, we propose a mechanism by which the UPR outcome switches between survival and death. We compose a mathematical model integrating the three signalling branches, and perform a comprehensive bifurcation analysis to investigate possible responses to stimuli. The analysis reveals three distinct states of behaviour, low, high and intermediate activity, associated with stress adaptation, tolerance, and the initiation of apoptosis. The decision to adapt or destruct can, therefore, be understood as a dynamic process where the balance between the stress and the folding capacity of the ER plays a pivotal role in managing the delivery of the most appropriate response. The model demonstrates for the first time that the UPR is capable of generating oscillations in translation attenuation and the apoptotic signals, and this is supplemented with a Bayesian sensitivity analysis identifying a set of parameters controlling this behaviour.This work contributes largely to the understanding of one of the most ubiquitous signalling pathways involved in protein folding quality control in the metazoan ER. The insights gained have direct consequences on the management of many UPR-related diseases, revealing, in addition, an extended list of candidate disease modifiers. Demonstration of stress adaptation sheds light to how preconditioning might be beneficial in manifesting the UPR outcome to prevent untimely apoptosis, and paves the way to novel approaches for the treatment of many UPR-related conditions.