Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is a state-of-the-science air quality model that simulates the emission, transformation, transport and fate of the many different air pollutant species that comprise particulate matter (PM), including dust (or soil). The CMAQ model version 5.0 (CMAQv5.0) has several enhancements over the previous version of the model for estimating the emission and transport of dust, including the ability to track the specific elemental constituents of dust and have the model-derived concentrations of those elements participate in chemistry. The latest version of the model also includes a parameterization to estimate emissions of dust due to wind action. The CMAQv5.0 modeling system was used to simulate the entire year 2006 for the continental United States, and the model estimates were evaluated against daily surface based measurements from several air quality networks. The CMAQ modeling system generally did well replicating the observed soil concentrations in the western United States; however the model consistently overestimated the observed soil concentrations in the eastern United States, regardless of season. The performance of the individual trace metals was generally good at the rural network sites, with relatively small biases for Fe, Al, Si and Ti throughout the year, while Ca, K and Mn were overestimated and Mg underestimated. For the urban sites, Fe, Mg and Mn, while overestimated, had comparatively better performance throughout the year than the other trace metals, which were consistently overestimated, including very large overestimations of Al, Ti and Si in the fall. An underestimation of nighttime mixing in the urban areas appears to contribute to the overestimation of trace metals. Removing the anthropogenic fugitive dust (AFD) emissions and the effects of wind-blown dust (WBD) lowered the model soil concentrations. However, even with both AFD emissions and WBD effects removed, soil concentrations were still often overestimated, suggesting that there are other sources of errors in the modeling system that contribute to the overestimation of soil components. Efforts are underway to improve both the nighttime mixing in urban areas and the spatial and temporal distribution of dust related emissions sources in the emissions inventory.