Predictors of success on the written anesthesiology board certification examination

Objectives: To determine whether information available prior to and during anesthesia residency training can predict American Board of Anesthesiology (ABA) Part 1 (Written) performance and help identify anesthesia residents at risk for failure. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 97 anesthesiology residents' academic files at a single Midwestern residency program. ABA Part 1 score was used as the dependent variable. Categorical demographic predictor variables included gender, under-represented minority status, and type of medical degree. Quantitative academic predictor variables included first-attempt scores on United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2, annual ABA In-Training Exam (ITE) scores, and biannual Basic Science Examination (BSE) scores. Predictors that correlated significantly with the dependent variable were entered into stepwise linear regression analyses. Results: In our analyses, only the USMLE Step 2 score was a significant pre-residency predictor (B=0.169; SE=0.031, p<0.001). Scores on ITEs were significant predictors at every time point. In the final regression model using all available measures during residency, the most recent ITE (B = 0.627; SE=0.090; p<0.001) and BSE (B=0.096; SE = 0.047; p=0.046) scores were significant predictors. The model accounted for 52of the variance in the outcome variable, with 50of the variance explained by ITE score alone. The model had a specificity of 0.83 and a sensitivity of 0.82 for predicting passing the ABA Part 1 exam. Conclusions: First-attempt scores on the USMLE Step 2 examination and the CA-2 ITE are moderately strong predictors of anesthesiology board examination perfor-mance, and may help target residents who are at risk of failing.