The lending channel and budget balance: empirical evidences from Central and Eastern European economies

The study aims to deepen the analysis on the indirect dependence of government budget balance on private sector credit flow in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The added value of this approach consists of two elements. First, the analysis suggests developing the traditional analytical framework of assessing risks to public finance stability by including second round effects of negative fiscal impulses on credit to private sector during recession periods. Second, the study provides empirical evidence on the importance of economic growth transmission channel for the impact of credit accelerator effects on primary deficit. At the same time, nonperforming loans channel proved to be insignificant, especially in relation to the persistency of last year’s budget deficit and the effects of budget allocations pro-cyclicality. However, loan portfolio quality seems to be more relevant in the case of public debt service, through its influence on the evolution of the yield on long-term government securities that is closely related to sovereign risk premium. Nevertheless, strengthening the financial safety net by the introduction of resolution funds will most probably break the link investors saw between credit portfolio quality and the impending increase in budget spending. This expected development across not only CEE countries, but at the EU level also, will facilitate the isolation of sovereign risk premium from non-performing loans’ dynamics.