Endogenous change: on cooperation and water in ancient history

We propose and test the theory of endogenous change based on historical reconstructions of two ancient civilizations, Indus and Hohokam, in two water scarce basins, the Indus basin in the Indian subcontinent and the Lower Colorado basin in Southwestern United States. The endogenous institutional change sees changes in institutions as a sequence of equilibria brought about by changes in "quasi-parameters" such as rainfall, population density, soil and land use induced water resource availability. In the historical reconstructions of ancient civilizations, institutions are proximated by the scale of cooperation be it in the form of the extent of trade, sophisticated irrigation network, a centrally planned state or a loosely held state with a common cultural identity. The "quasi-parameters" either change naturally or are changed by humans and the changes affect the stability of cooperative structures over time. However, human influenced changes in the quasi-parameters itself are conditioned on the scale of existing cooperative structures. We thus provide insights into the quantitative dimensions of water access by ancient populations and its co-evolution with the socioeconomic and sociopolitical organization of the human past. We however do not suggest that water manipulation was the single most significant factor in stimulating social development and complexity – clearly this has been shown as highly reductionist, even misleading. The paper cautiously contributes to proximate prediction of hydrological change by attempting to understand the complexity of coupled human-hydrological systems.