The influence of precipitation and temperature input schemes on hydrological simulations of a snow and glacier melt dominated basin in Northwest China

Basins with glaciers and snow provide water storage and supply for downstream irrigated farmland, but their hydrology is often poorly known because there are limited observation networks in high mountain regions. Large uncertainties in hydrological simulations also arise from errors associated with meteorological forcing data. The influence of precipitation and temperature forcing data on hydrological simulations in rain/snow dominated watershed is well documented, but less so in basins with glaciers. We analyzed the impacts and reliability of precipitation/temperature input solutions on hydrological simulations in the glacier/snow dominated Manas River Basin, showing that precipitation pattern has significant impact on snow accumulation and melt, and further impacts on simulated glacier melt behavior. The temperature inputs affect not only the timing of discharge but also the total water yield. The uncertainty associated with simple estimated input data propagates and is amplified through the modeling process. We suggest that the impacts of forcing data on hydrological simulations in basins with glaciers are more complex than in common rain/snow dominated watersheds. Glacier melt behavior may conceal uncertainties that are actually derived from input data. Assessment of hydrological model performance should include investigation of key processes involved in the hydrologic cycle individually, not just comparisons of simulated and observed discharge.