An assessment of global net irrigation water requirements from various water supply sources to sustain irrigation: rivers and reservoirs (1960–2000 and 2050)

Water supply sources for irrigation, such as rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater, are critically important for agricultural productivity. The current rapid increase in irrigation water use threatens sustainable food production. In this study, we estimated the time-varying dependency of the supply of irrigation water from rivers, large reservoirs with a greater than 1.0 km3 storage capacity, medium-size reservoirs with storage capacities ranging from 1.0 km3 to 3.0 Mm3, and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW), particularly taking into account variations in irrigation area during the period 1960–2000. We also estimated the future irrigation water requirements from water supply sources in addition to these four sources, using an irrigation area scenario. The net irrigation water requirements from various supply sources were assessed using the global H08 water resources model. The H08 model simulates water requirements on a daily basis at a resolution of 1.0° × 1.0°. We obtained net irrigation water from rivers and medium-size reservoirs, and determined that the NNBW increased continuously from 1960 to 1985, but the net irrigation water from large reservoirs increased only marginally. After 1985, the net irrigation water from rivers approached a critical limit with the continued expansion of the irrigation area. The irrigation water requirements from medium-size reservoirs and NNBW increased significantly following the expansion of the irrigation area and the increased storage capacity of medium-size reservoirs. Under the irrigation area scenario without climate change, global net irrigation water requirements from additional water supply sources will account for 26% of the total requirements in the year 2050. We found that expansion of irrigation areas due to population growth will generate an enormous demand for irrigation water from additional resources.