Estimating Growth Rates and Decomposition Analysis of Agricultural Production in Iran (1970-2000)

The main objectives of this study are to examine the trends in area, production and yield of Iran’s agricultural production especially food grains; the decomposition of output growth of main crops and systematically document the pre and post-revolutionary and pre and post-reform trends in agricultural growth in Iran. Compound growth rates of area, production and yield were estimated by fitting semi-log trend equation using data for 1970/71-1999/2000. Decomposition of output growth of main crops were examined by fitting component analysis model using data for the period 1970/71-1999/2000. The performance of agricultural sector was slightly better during the pre-revolutionary period than that of post-revolutionary period. Production yield per hectare of food grains grew during the 1970-78 at the higher rate than that of during the 1979-2000. During the post-revolutionary period, the total agricultural crops during the pre-economic reforms period grew at the higher rate than that of post-economic period, but the growth in yield during the post-economic reforms period was much better than that of during the 1979-89. The main source of growth of agricultural production during the period 1970-2000 has been the growth in yield per hectare and expansion in irrigated area.