The evolution of warfare in Africa

It is widely noted that armed conflict in Africa has evolved away from the prominence of insurgencies that are able to mobilize supporters around political programs in favor of more fragmented organizations in the service of their leaders' quests for power and wealth. The causes of this shift are found in changes in the domestic politics of African states that have taken place in recent decades. Regime strategies to disorganize and co-opt opponents and to suppress mass political mobilization have restricted the social spaces in which ideologues formerly organized and recruited cadres. Emigration among educated groups that previously supplied the bulk of insurgent leaders and cadres further reduces the influence of these groups. Alongside these changes, the development of parallel political structures that are rooted in the control of commerce channels resources to new leaders who lead insurgencies to establish their own dominance in this system of politics. This competition crowds out remaining ideologues who would pursue a vision of more radical change.