A kis téliaraszoló (Operophtera brumata L.) aktivitásának modellezése abiotikus paraméterekkel

In this paper the Hungarian light trap data (1973-93) of Operophtera brumata, L., an important pest in forestry and horticulture are analysed. The life cycle of the Lepidopterais introduced and the activity of the pests is estimated. We prove that the gradation of the pests has the same periodicity as sunspot cycle has, the gradation peak as feedback is delayed by about two years. The population dynamics of the pest is defined also byclimatic parameters. The most effective climatic parameters in this time slice were the sum of precipitation in June and the sum of sunny hours in October. The model is analysed, the model diagnostics is given and an outlook is described on the planned future research, development and application.