Cyber Warfare and Deterrence: Trends and Challenges in Research

In recent years a growing number of researchers have expanded the discussion of deterrence strategy to a host of new threats. These studies share several elements: they are based primarily on an effort to examine the relevance of conditions necessary for successful deterrence, formulated in the context of the Cold War, and to a large degree are policy oriented, particularly regarding the challenges confronting the United States. These same elements dominate the evolving debate on the connection between deterrence and cyber warfare.The research examines the possibility of successfully implementing the strategy of deterrence in order to prevent cyber attacks, or analyzes the way the US can use cyber warfare in order to deter other threats it faces. These studies make it clear that the possibility of successful deterrence against cyber attacks is limited with regard to each of the dimensions required for its success: the existence of capability (weapons), the credibility of the threat, and the ability to convey the threatening message to the potential challenger. This essay surveys the literature and proposes directions for continued research on the topic. The essay begins by presenting the necessary conditions for a successful strategy of deterrence. It then reviews the central claims regarding the dif culties in applying successful deterrence in cyber warfare vis-à-vis each of these conditions. The third part discusses some bene ts and shortcomings of certain factors that may strengthen deterrence against cyber warfare. Finally, it highlights the importance of continuing the discussion of deterrence and cyber warfare, indicating a number of directions for future research.