MODELLING OF AREA OF POSSIBLE RESULTS OF THE INNOVATIVE INVESTMENT PROJECT/МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ОБЛАСТИ ВОЗМОЖНЫХ РЕЗУЛЬТАТОВ ИННОВАЦИОННОГО ПРОЕКТА

Methodical approaches to an assessment of level of investment risk are offered. As a quantitative measure of risk of unprofitability the probability of obtaining negative value of the modified rate of difficult percent is used. The conclusion that application for approximation of results of modeling of extreme distributions, including Gumbel’s distributions, can be much more adequate, than use of widespread normal distribution of probabilities is drawn.