Petroleum Refining and its Economic and Technological Impact for the Production of Gasoline in Mexico to 2030

Gas imports in Mexico have increased in the last few years. Nowadays Mexico has no capacity to meet the demands of this fuel in the next twenty years. In this paper we analyze several oil refining projections that enable the oil supply in Mexico until year 2030, taking into consideration four types of refineries, processing the produc- tion of pure oils in the country, using four mixtures of the higher reserve, consider- ing an import to meet the demand of fuel and once met consider exportation. Modeling was carried out analyzing the volume of refined oil and the required in- vestment, based on the kind of refinery and on the processing units that characterize it. As it was mentioned before, there are different refining projections to meet the demand of gas, but considering that the main oil production in Mexico is heavy. The simulated projection with this type of oil would require a higher volume in the exis- tent refineries in the country to meet that demand. Besides, considering the kind of refinery (out of four), the volumes to refine will be less, if very complex refineries are used. However, the cost of investment in this technology would be higher, consider- ing that new refineries will be built in a near future to meet the fuel demands.