MODELAGEM NUMéRICA DA IRRADIA O SOLAR COMO MéTODO ALTERNATIVO NA AVALIA O DO POTENCIAL ENERGéTICO DISPONíVEL SOLAR IRRADIATION NUMERICAL MODELING AS ALTERNATIVE METHOD IN EVALUATING OF AVAILABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL

Numerical modeling is an important tool for estimating and forecasting the renewable energy resources necessary for developing and operating solar power plants. The article presents the analysis performed in the development and adaptation of empirical models to estimate solar radiation at the surface on two scopes: with local coverage for selected sites and regional coverage for the entire Brazilian territory. Low statistical deviations between model estimates and surface measurements (17% to 23% RMSE for ALL model and 15% to 26% for local models) demonstrated the reliable performance of developed models. Additionally, two classic models (Ruth and Chant, 1976; Collares-Pereira and Rabl, 1979) and the local model performances were compared for S o Martinho da Serra. The results showed a good agreement between the estimatesprovided by the three models and ground measurements, except for clear sky days (Kt > 0.7), in which the local model is better than classic models.