Aging and the Demographic Transition in India and Its States: A Comparative Perspective

In the present paper an attempt has been made to give a comparative perspective about the ageing of the population and the demographic transition taking place in India and its15 major states. Data required for the present study on the indicators namely the life expectancy at birth, the total fertility rate, the age distribution of the population of the broad ages 0-14,15-59 and 60+ has been collected mainly from various publications of the 'Sample Registration System' (SRS) of the Registrar General of India for the forty years starting from 1970s to the year latest period 2010. Information for the projected periods of 2011-16 to 2096-2101 about the above same indicators are collected from the single source PRB's 2007 publication entitled "The future POPULATION of India: A Long-range Demographic View". Results of the present analysis indicates that India and its major states are well in progress in their demographic transition and are at different stages of their demographic transition based on the progress made in their fertility and mortality transitions as a result of different progress made in their health and socio-economic development. Consequently it is seen while some of the states are at very advanced stage of the ageing process; others are seen lagging behind them. States in south of India namely Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka in the same sequence are always seen in the advanced stage of their mortality, fertility and demographic transitions when compared to their counterparts the northern states namely, the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Ageing process thus seen to be well in advance in the southern states of India, however, it is not seen well reflected when we look at the India as a whole. It is realised to be mainly due to the slow progress in the ageing process taking place in the northern states which are most populous and mainly as a consequence of slow progress in their fertility transition when compared to their mortality transition. The state of Kerala is said to be always exceptional when compared to all other states in India in terms of its ageing and demographic transition process due to obvious reasons. Results of the present analysis further indicate for an in-depth study of factors responsible for the ageing and the demographic transition process taking place presently in the selected states and India. [393 words]