The Source of Lake Wobegon [updated]

John J. Cannell's late 1980's "Lake Wobegon" reports suggested widespread deliberateeducator manipulation of norm-referenced standardized test (NRT) administrations and results,resulting in artificial test score gains. The Cannell studies have been referenced in educationresearch since, but as evidence that high stakes (and not cheating or lax security) cause test scoreinflation. This article examines that research and Cannell's data for evidence that high stakes causetest score inflation. No such evidence is found. Indeed, the evidence indicates that, if anything, theabsence of high stakes is associated with artificial test score gains. The variable most highlycorrelated with test score inflation is general performance on achievement tests, with traditionallylow-performing states exhibiting more test score inflation on low-stakes norm-referencedtests than traditionally high-performing states, regardless of whether or not a state alsomaintains a high-stakes testing program. The unsupported high-stakes-cause-test-score-inflationhypothesis seems to derive from the surreptitious substitution of an antiquated definition of theterm "high stakes" and a few studies afflicted with left-out-variable bias.