Risk Estimation of Campylobacter jejuni Caused by Chicken Meat Consumption for High Risk Group in Thailand

Risk estimation was developed for Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) caused by chicken meatconsumption for high risk group, children under 5 years of age, in Thailand. From our previous study,it was found that the more appropriate model was Beta Poisson model based on the minimum valuesof MSE and MAPE. The fit of the Exponential model is considered to be inadequate. In this study,Beta Poisson dose-response models are developed for describing the relationships between thenumbers of C. jejuni in contaminated chicken meat that was consumed and the resulting illnessoutcome. Values of maximum likelihood estimated by the Beta Poisson dose response models are alsodetermined to describe a probabilistic causal relation between exposure received and frequency aswell as severity of resulting adverse health effects including number of illnesses per year. The doseresponseparameters were derived from epidemiological and research data and were used to calculatethe risk estimate. The number of campylobacteriosis cases caused by chicken meat consumption peryear for children aged less than or equal to 5 years is predicted and risk of chicken meat consumptionwith C. jejuni contamination is also explored. Beta Poisson model predicted that 4,103 will become illannually from the ingestion of C. jejuni at about 1.53 LogDose/serving. The most significantsensitivity factors that impact to incidence of C. jejuni are meal size or volume of chicken meatproduct per meal and the contamination levels of C. jejuni in chicken meat.