Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

Climate change is detrimental to permafrost and related processes, from hydrological and ecological to societal. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modeled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections till 2075. In this paper we developed the Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP). This is the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP was used in a simple risk assessment procedure usefull for engineerings. Climate warming will result in wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation. Construction on sedimentary deposits with permafrost should be avoided south of latitude 67.