Policy and Prediction: The Case of Institutional Diversity in Romanian Higher Education

Presenting key elements of post-1990 historical developments in the Romanian higher education system, the emphasis is put on recent (2011)policies of increasing higher education institutional differentiation. The view is that, in policy design, due attention should be paid to both historical roots and predicted developments. Building on an institutional analysis approach, we put forward a theoretical model that aims to explore the predictive implications of some recently promoted higher education policies. These policies are expected to increase institutional differentiation at the systemic level and enhance quality in teaching and research at university level. The predictive capacity of a model of reference is tested against a concurrent model. The key assumption of the latter is that of considering higher education institutions (HEIs) as “cooperative systems” that are unable to generate those outputs and outcomes that, by aggregation, would contribute to the construction of an institutionally diverse and heterogeneous higher education landscape.