The implications of climate change for crop yields, global food supply and risk of hunger

This paper reviews the series of studies, from 1994 to 2007, which have evaluated the potential effects of climate change on crop yield, food production and risk of hunger. There are two global studies of crop yield responses and several additional estimates of production that are based on the first of these. The studies cover three broad type of analysis: 1) effects under climate change but with underlying socio-economic characteristics largely unspecified, 2) effects under both changes in climate and with varying development pathways assumed to affect underlying socio-economics, and 3) effects under different policies of stablisation of greenhouse gases. There are some conclusions common to all studies: that climate change will generally reduce production potential and increase risk of hunger, and that Africa is the most adversely affected region. An additionally important initial conclusion is that pathways of sustainable economic development have a marked effect in reducing the adverse effects on climate change.