Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler’s main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified. 1. Introduction With the development of city agglomerations and regional economic integration, meanwhile with the improvement of urbanization and mechanization on transportation, great change is taking place in the connections between cities in the regional area quantitatively and qualitatively. However, the research of regional travel demand is still insufficient to meet the need of regional comprehensive transportation plan and construction work. There are big differences in travel behaviors between regional and urban trips. With the conventional four-step method, it is difficult to measure the changes in trip generation due to improved travel conditions, because the conventional trip generation methods are not sensitive to changes in the level of service and are not able to capture the effects of such travel time reductions [1]. These models that were taken for urban transportation demand analysis cannot be directly used in intercity demand analysis. New models which met the travel behaviors of regional trips should be developed to analyze and forecast intercity travel demands. In recent years, with the development of high-speed railways in USA, lots of researchers put their research focus on intercity travel demands, such as the study on passenger flow volume forecasting and income on Bay/California high-speed railway. In this study, models which were developed to plan the intercity travel demands among several major cities crossing 14 main regions provide valuable and supportive quantized evidence for planning and