全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

DOI: 10.1155/2013/919013

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC) is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model). We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change. 1. Introduction LUCC is a significant performance of the material and energy interactions between human and global environment [1–3]. It not only affects the geographical distribution of terrestrial ecosystem patterns and productivity but also objectively reflects how human influence biogeochemical cycles and the structure and function of ecosystem [4–7]. Land use refers to all the activities to develop and utilize the land use on purpose; for example, agricultural land, industrial land, traffic land, residential land, and so forth, are all the land use types. Advanced methods have also been used by scholars in the classification of land use; Jiang et al. used the ANN and Dempster-Shafer theory to get a more detailed classification of land use [8]. LUCC is one of the International core research program of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Global Environmental Change Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP), which also is one of the new research field and global environmental research focus in earth system science [9]. A lot of scholars had come to realize the important research significance of LUCC, and some studies showed that there was a very close relationship between land use changes and climate change. Dale pointed out that land use change was related to climate change as both a causal factor and a major way in early 1994 [10]. Studies of Hao and Ren showed that LUCC had a profound influence in climates,

References

[1]  M. Yan, Z. Wang, J. Kaplan, J. Liu, S. Min, and S. Wang, “Comparison between reconstructions of global anthropogenic land cover change over past two millennia,” Chinese Geographical Science, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 131–146, 2013.
[2]  X. Deng, J. Han, and F. Yin, “Net energy, CO2 emission and land-based cost-benefit analyses of Jatropha biodiesel: a case study of the Panzhihua region of Sichuan province in China,” Energies, vol. 5, no. 7, pp. 2150–2164, 2012.
[3]  W. Wu, J. Huang, and X. Deng, “Potential land for plantation of Jatropha curcas as feedstocks for biodiesel in China,” Science in China Series D, vol. 53, no. 1, pp. 120–127, 2010.
[4]  L. Jiang, X. Deng, and K. Seto, “The impact of urban expansion on agricultural land use intensity in China,” Land Use Policy, vol. 35, pp. 33–39, 2013.
[5]  L. Jiang, X. Deng, and K. Seto, “Multi-level modeling of urban expansion and cultivated land conversion for urban hotspot counties in China,” Landscape and Urban Planning, vol. 108, no. 2–4, pp. 131–139, 2012.
[6]  J. Liu and X. Deng, “Progress of the research methodologies on the temporal and spatial process of LUCC,” Chinese Science Bulletin, vol. 55, no. 14, pp. 1354–1362, 2010.
[7]  X. Deng, J. Huang, S. Rozelle, and E. Uchida, “Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China,” Land Use Policy, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 372–384, 2006.
[8]  D. Jiang, D. Zhuang, Y. Huang, and J. Fu, “Survey of multispectral image fusion techniques in remote sensing applications,” in Image Fusion and Its Applications, pp. 1–23, InTechOpen, 2011.
[9]  X. Zhou and C. Kang, “Land use/cover change analysis in Wuhan city based on RS and GIS,” in Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Geoinformatics (Geoinformatics '11), pp. 1–5, June 2011.
[10]  V. H. Dale, “The relationship between land-use change and climate change,” Ecological Applications, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 753–769, 1997.
[11]  H. Hao and Z. Ren, “Land use/Land cover change (LUCC) and eco-environment response to LUCC in farming-pastoral zone, China,” Agricultural Sciences in China, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 91–97, 2009.
[12]  B. Turner, R. Moss, and D. Skole, “Relation of land use and global land cover change: a proposal for an IGBP-HDP core project,” IGBP Report, vol. 24 and IHDP Report, vol. 5, Stockholm, Sweden, 1993.
[13]  J. Liu, Z. Zhang, X. Xu et al., “Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century,” Journal of Geographical Sciences, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 483–494, 2010.
[14]  G. B. Bonan, “Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests,” Science, vol. 320, no. 5882, pp. 1444–1449, 2008.
[15]  M. Wang, X. Zhang, and X. Yan, “Modeling the climatic effects of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 113, no. 3-4, pp. 377–385, 2013.
[16]  E. Kalnay and M. Cai, “Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate,” Nature, vol. 423, no. 6939, pp. 528–531, 2003.
[17]  D. Zhuang, D. Jiang, L. Liu, and Y. Huang, “Assessment of bioenergy potential on marginal land in China,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 1050–1056, 2011.
[18]  K. J. Anderson-Teixeira, P. K. Snyder, T. E. Twine, S. V. Cuadra, M. H. Costa, and E. H. Delucia, “Climate-regulation services of natural and agricultural ecoregions of the Americas,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 177–181, 2012.
[19]  F. Li, X. Liu, D. Hu et al., “Measurement indicators and an evaluation approach for assessing urban sustainable development: a case study for China's Jining City,” Landscape and Urban Planning, vol. 90, no. 3-4, pp. 134–142, 2009.
[20]  Z. Hu, J. Yuan, and Z. Hu, “Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment framework,” Energy Policy, vol. 39, no. 5, pp. 2596–2605, 2011.
[21]  X. Zhang, J. Han, H. Zhao et al., “Evaluating the interplays among economic growth and energy consumption and CO2 emission of China during 1990–2007,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 65–72, 2012.
[22]  J. Liu, M. Liu, D. Zhuang, Z. Zhang, and X. Deng, “Study on spatial pattern of land-use change in China during 1995–2000,” Science in China Series D, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 373–384, 2003.
[23]  X. Deng, Y. Fang, Y. Lin, and Y. Yuan, “Non-parametric method for filling in the missing value for cross-sectional dataset: a validation on the per capita GDP data at county level in China,” Journal of Food, Agriculture & Environment, vol. 10, no. 3-4, pp. 1350–1354, 2012.
[24]  A. Brenkert, S. Smith, S. Kim, and H. Pitcher, “Model documentation for the MiniCAM,” PNNL-14337, U.S. Department of Energy, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Wash, USA, 2003.
[25]  J. Edmonds, M. Wise, H. Pitcher, R. Richels, T. Wigley, and C. Maccracken, “An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies,” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 311–339, 1997.
[26]  J. Edmonds and J. Reilly, Global Energy: Assessing the Future, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, USA, 1985.
[27]  J. Edmonds, J. Reilly, R. Gardner, and A. Brenkert, Uncertainty in Future Global Energy Use and Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions 1975 to 2075, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Va, USA, 1986.
[28]  R. D. Sands and J. A. Edmonds, “Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment: part 7. Economic analysis of field crops and land use with climate change,” Climatic Change, vol. 69, no. 1, pp. 127–150, 2005.
[29]  R. D. Sands and M. Leimbach, “Modeling agriculture and land use in an integrated assessment framework,” Climatic Change, vol. 56, no. 1-2, pp. 185–210, 2003.
[30]  T. M. L. Wigley and S. C. B. Raper, “Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios,” Nature, vol. 357, no. 6376, pp. 293–300, 1992.
[31]  M. Hulme, T. Jiang, and T. Wigley, SCENGEN: A Climate Change Scenario Generator, a Software User Manual, Climatic Change Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 1995.
[32]  B. Lin and J. Liu, “Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 512–519, 2010.
[33]  W. Liu, H. Lund, B. V. Mathiesen, and X. Zhang, “Potential of renewable energy systems in China,” Applied Energy, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 518–525, 2011.

Full-Text

comments powered by Disqus

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133

WeChat 1538708413