全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

Projected Impacts of Bioenergy-Demand-Induced Land Use and Cover Changes on Regional Climate in Central Europe

DOI: 10.1155/2013/293937

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

Energy shortfalls are becoming more and more serious all over the world, and worldwide governments have tried to promote the development of biofuels in order to mitigate the climatic impacts of massive fossil fuel consumption. Since the land is the main input factor of the bioenergy production, the development of biofuels will inevitably lead to change of the land use structure and allocation and thereby affect the climate system. With Central Europe as the study area, this study explored the impacts of land use/land cover change (LUCC) on climate under the influence of demand of bioenergy production for land resources. First, the land use structure from 2010 to 2050 is simulated with the Agriculture and Land Use model in MiniCam. The result indicates that the main conversion will be mainly from grassland and forest to cropland and from cropland to grassland. Then the Dynamics of Land System model was used to spatially simulate the LUCC in the future. The impacts of LUCC on the climate were analyzed on the basis of simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The climate change will be characterized by the increase of latent heat flux and temperature and the decrease of precipitation. 1. Introduction Energy shortfalls have been increasingly serious all over the world; meanwhile, the renewable energy is rapidly developing but has not become a significant source of energy yet [1]. Since the 1990s, the United States, high-energy-consumption countries in Europe, and the agricultural products trading countries such as Brazil have begun to develop the renewable bioenergy [2]. As the main type of the renewables, the worldwide governments are also promoting its development in order to mitigate the climatic effects of the consumption of massive fossil fuel. At the same time, it is becoming a scientific research hotspot in recent decades. Some previous researches on the effectiveness of bioenergy have estimated the potential impacts of the development of renewable energy according to the change of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission due to land use/land cover change (LUCC) and by means of life cycle analysis (LCA) [3]. LUCC has great impacts on GHGs, and it also modifies the surface energy and water balance [4, 5] through influencing the near-surface temperature and precipitation. Besides, it serves as an additional driving force of the climate change at the global [6–9] and regional [10–12] scales. This study mainly focused on the effects of bioenergy development on LUCC, which influences the biogeophysical processes of the land surface and

References

[1]  L. Zhang, Z. Yang, B. Chen, and G. Chen, “Rural energy in China: pattern and policy,” Renewable Energy, vol. 34, no. 12, pp. 2813–2823, 2009.
[2]  M. El-Ashry, Renewables 2010 Global Status Report, REN21 Secretariat, Copyright Deutsche (GTZ) GmbH, Paris, France, 2010.
[3]  S. Chen, B. Chen, and D. Song, “Life-cycle energy production and emissions mitigation by comprehensive biogas-digestate utilization,” Bioresource Technology, vol. 114, pp. 357–364, 2012.
[4]  R. M. Bright, F. Cherubini, and A. H. Str?mman, “Climate impacts of bioenergy: inclusion of carbon cycle and albedo dynamics in life cycle impact assessment,” Environmental Impact Assessment Review, vol. 37, pp. 2–11, 2012.
[5]  X. Deng, C. Zhao, and H. Yan, “Systematic modeling of impacts of land use and land cover changes on regional climate: a review,” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2013, Article ID 317678, 11 pages, 2013.
[6]  S. Sitch, V. Brovkin, W. von Bloh, D. van Vuuren, B. Eickhout, and A. Ganopolski, “Impacts of future land cover changes on atmospheric CO2 and climate,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 19, no. 2, Article ID GB2013, pp. 1–15, 2005.
[7]  J. A. Foley, R. DeFries, G. P. Asner et al., “Global consequences of land use,” Science, vol. 309, no. 5734, pp. 570–574, 2005.
[8]  P. K. Snyder, C. Delire, and J. A. Foley, “Evaluating the influence of different vegetation biomes on the global climate,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 23, no. 3-4, pp. 279–302, 2004.
[9]  S. M. Sterling, P. Haff, R. Jackson, and W. Schlesinger, “The impact of anthropogenic global land cover transformation on the land-atmosphere fluxes of the water and carbon cycles,” Duke University, 2005.
[10]  M. Schaeffer, B. Eickhout, M. Hoogwijk et al., “CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and biomass plantations,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol. 20, no. 2, Article ID GB2020, 2006.
[11]  M. Georgescu, D. B. Lobell, and C. B. Field, “Potential impact of U.S. biofuels on regional climate,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 36, no. 21, Article ID L21806, 2009.
[12]  A. J. Pitman, A. Arneth, and L. Ganzeveld, “Regionalizing global climate models,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 321–337, 2012.
[13]  X. Deng, J. Han, and F. Yin, “Net energy, CO2 emission and land-based cost-benefit analyses of jatropha biodiesel: a case study of the Panzhihua region of Sichuan Province in China,” Energies, vol. 5, no. 7, pp. 2150–2164, 2012.
[14]  Y. Cao and A. Paw?owski, “Life cycle assessment of two emerging sewage sludge-to-energy systems: evaluating energy and greenhouse gas emissions implications,” Bioresource Technology, vol. 127, pp. 81–91, 2013.
[15]  V. K. Arora and A. Montenegro, “Small temperature benefits provided by realistic afforestation efforts,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 4, no. 8, pp. 514–518, 2011.
[16]  L. X. Chen Yuqi, S. Yan, and Z. Wen, “Land use changes caused by biofuel production,” Journal of Natural Resources, vol. 25, no. 9, p. 10, 2010.
[17]  A. Müller, J. Schmidhuber, J. Hoogeveen, and P. Steduto, “Some insights in the effect of growing bio-energy demand on global food security and natural resources,” Water Policy, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 83–94, 2008.
[18]  X. Deng, J. Huang, E. Uchida, S. Rozelle, and J. Gibson, “Pressure cookers or pressure valves: do roads lead to deforestation in China?” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 61, no. 1, pp. 79–94, 2011.
[19]  G. B. Partnership, “The Global Bioenergy Partnership Sustainability Indicators for Bioenergy,” 2011.
[20]  M. D. A. Rounsevell, F. Ewert, I. Reginster, R. Leemans, and T. R. Carter, “Future scenarios of European agricultural land use—II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland,” Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, vol. 107, no. 2-3, pp. 117–135, 2005.
[21]  F. Hellmann and P. H. Verburg, “Spatially explicit modelling of biofuel crops in Europe,” Biomass and Bioenergy, vol. 35, no. 6, pp. 2411–2424, 2011.
[22]  D. B. Lobell, G. Bala, and P. B. Duffy, “Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, no. 6, Article ID L06708, 2006.
[23]  R. A. Betts, P. D. Falloon, K. K. Goldewijk, and N. Ramankutty, “Biogeophysical effects of land use on climate: model simulations of radiative forcing and large-scale temperature change,” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 142, no. 2–4, pp. 216–233, 2007.
[24]  R. A. Betts, “Biogeophysical impacts of land use on present-day climate: near-surface temperature change and radiative forcing,” Atmospheric Science Letters, vol. 2, no. 1–4, pp. 1–13, 2001.
[25]  R. A. Pielke Sr., J. Adegoke, A. Beltrán-Przekurat et al., “An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall,” Tellus, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 587–601, 2007.
[26]  R. A. Pielke Sr., G. Marland, R. A. Betts et al., “The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, vol. 360, no. 1797, pp. 1705–1719, 2002.
[27]  J. Feddema, K. Oleson, G. Bonan et al., “A comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present-day land cover representations,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 25, no. 6, pp. 581–609, 2005.
[28]  M. Beniston, D. B. Stephenson, O. B. Christensen et al., “Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections,” Climatic Change, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 71–95, 2007.
[29]  K. Helming, K. Tscherning, B. K?nig et al., “Ex ante impact assessment of land use changes in European regions-the SENSOR approach,” in Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes, pp. 77–105, Springer, 2008.
[30]  J. J. Feddema, K. W. Oleson, G. B. Bonan et al., “Atmospheric science: the importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates,” Science, vol. 310, no. 5754, pp. 1674–1678, 2005.
[31]  R. D. Sands and M. Leimbach, “Modeling agriculture and land use in an integrated assessment framework,” Climatic Change, vol. 56, no. 1-2, pp. 185–210, 2003.
[32]  X. Deng, H. Su, and J. Zhan, “Integration of multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of land systems,” Sensors, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 620–634, 2008.
[33]  X. Deng, Q. Jiang, J. Zhan, S. He, and Y. Lin, “Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China,” Journal of Geographical Sciences, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 495–509, 2010.
[34]  J. Jin, N. L. Miller, and N. Schlegel, “Sensitivity study of four land surface schemes in the WRF model,” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2010, Article ID 167436, 11 pages, 2010.
[35]  A. M. G. Klein Tank, J. B. Wijngaard, G. P. K?nnen et al., “Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 22, no. 12, pp. 1441–1453, 2002.
[36]  M. R. L. V. Leal, L. A. Horta Nogueira, and L. A. B. Cortez, “Land demand for ethanol production,” Applied Energy, vol. 102, pp. 266–271, 2013.
[37]  G. Sorda, M. Banse, and C. Kemfert, “An overview of biofuel policies across the world,” Energy Policy, vol. 38, no. 11, pp. 6977–6988, 2010.
[38]  D. Khatiwada, J. Seabra, S. Silveira, and A. Walter, “Accounting greenhouse gas emissions in the lifecycle of Brazilian sugarcane bioethanol: methodological references in European and American regulations,” Energy Policy, vol. 47, pp. 384–397, 2012.
[39]  A. P. C. Faaij, “Bio-energy in Europe: changing technology choices,” Energy Policy, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 322–342, 2006.
[40]  I. I. Watkinson, A. V. Bridgwater, and C. Luxmore, “Advanced education and training in bioenergy in Europe,” Biomass and Bioenergy, vol. 38, pp. 128–143, 2012.
[41]  T. S. Buchholz, T. A. Volk, and V. A. Luzadis, “A participatory systems approach to modeling social, economic, and ecological components of bioenergy,” Energy Policy, vol. 35, no. 12, pp. 6084–6094, 2007.

Full-Text

comments powered by Disqus

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133

WeChat 1538708413